Predictions for the 93rd Academy Awards

Best Supporting Actor: Sacha Baron Cohen - “The Trial of the Chicago 7,”; Daniel Kaluuya - “Judas and the Black Messiah,”; Leslie Odom Jr., - “One Night in Miami…”; Paul Raci - “Sound of Metal”; Lakeith Stanfield - “Judas and the Black Messiah”

Daniel Kaluuya in 
"Judas and the Black Messiah"
Photo Credit: RottenTomatoes.com

Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya - “Judas and the Black Messiah” - While Kaluuya’s striking performance as Black Panther activist Fred Hampton wasn’t recognized much with the critics groups, his steam roll through the major award ceremonies has pretty much guaranteed a win.  For his performance, Kaluuya has picked up the Critics Choice award, the Golden Globe, the Screen Actors Guild award, and the BAFTA (British Academy of Film and Television Arts) award.  This is his second Oscar nomination, and it’s sure to turn into a win on Hollywood’s biggest night.

Paul Raci in "Sound of Metal"
Photo Credit: Imdb.com

Should Win: Paul Raci - “Sound of Metal” - Early in the awards season, Raci picked up several wins with critics groups and a Critics Choice award nomination, but he lost some steam when he missed out on nominations for the Golden Globes and SAG awards.  Although this category is going to be a win for Kaluuya at this point, I was more than happy to see Raci at least manage an Oscar nomination for his understated, yet stirring portrayal as a man who leads a deaf community and helps the main character assimilate into a hearing-impaired lifestyle.  He might not have a shot at the Oscar, but hopefully this nomination will be enough to encourage people to see such a loving performance.

Best Supporting Actress: Maria Bakalova - “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”; Glenn Close - “Hillbilly Elegy”; Olivia Coleman - “The Father”; Amanda Seyfried - “Mank”; Youn Yuh-jung - “Minari”

Youn Yuh-jung in "Minari"
Photo Credit: Imdb.com

Will Win and Should Win: Youn Yuh-jung - “Minari” - While this race seemed to be getting as competitive as Best Actress at first, the last couple of weeks have built up a potential win for Youn.  Among her fellow nominees, she has had the most luck with the critics groups and has gone on to win the SAG award and BAFTA for her fun and compassionate performance as a young-at-heart grandmother who moves from Korea to America to live with her daughter’s family, who have just moved to Kansas and intend on building a farm.  It’s a performance that delivers pure delight as her character tries to bring some cheeriness and generational wisdom to a household that’s facing some hardships, and you’ll finish this movie with quite a bit of happiness for getting to know this character.

Best Actor: Riz Ahmed - “Sound of Metal”; Chadwick Boseman - “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”; Anthony Hopkins - “The Father”; Gary Oldman - “Mank”; Steven Yeun - “Minari”

Chadwick Boseman in 
"Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"
Photo Credit: Imdb.com

Will Win: Chadwick Boseman - “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” - This is another category that has a clear winner, with Boseman’s final film performance (he passed away in August) has won in three of the major award shows, receiving the Critics Choice award, Golden Globe, and SAG award.  His performance as the lively, yet tragic trumpet player in the titular character’s backup band is a testament to a talent who has gone far too soon, and it’s more than certain that his name will emerge from the envelope on Oscar night.

Anthony Hopkins in "The Father"
Photo Credit: Imdb.com

Should Win: Anthony Hopkins - “The Father” - As much as I loved Boseman’s performance, Hopkins’ portrayal of a man whose mind is deteriorating from dementia breaks you down with how heartrending it is.  It’s one of those performances where you know it will be saddening, but by the time the end credits begin, you’re taken aback at just how emotionally draining Hopkins’ work was in the movie, which earned him the BAFTA.  We didn’t need a reminder of how transcendent Hopkins’ talent is, but this movie makes you thankful that we had one anyway. 

Best Actress: Viola Davis - “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”; Andra Day - “The United States vs. Billie Holiday”; Vanessa Kirby - “Pieces of a Woman”; Frances McDormand - “Nomadland”; Carey Mulligan - “Promising Young Woman”

Frances McDormand in "Nomadland"
Photo Credit: RottenTomatoes.com

Will Win: Frances McDormand - “Nomadland” - This is the most difficult category to predict because, except for Kirby, all of the other nominees have won in the four biggest award ceremonies leading up to the Oscars, with Davis winning the SAG award, Day winning the Golden Globe, McDormand winning the BAFTA, and Mulligan winning the Critics Choice award.  If you look at it, this could be anyone’s win.  However, McDormand’s performance, where she plays a woman who adopts a nomadic lifestyle during the recession, might have the upper hand.  McDormand not only has the most wins amongst the critics groups, but she has the lead performance in the most-awarded movie of the year, which is also the Best Picture frontrunner.  While a good portion of these nominees have a chance at winning, don’t be surprised if McDormand’s nomination turns into a win for “Nomadland.”

Vanessa Kirby in "Pieces of a Woman"
Photo Credit: RottenTomatoes.com

Should Win: Vanessa Kirby - “Pieces of a Woman” - Kirby has been nominated for every big award, but as was said before, she hasn’t come out on top for any of them, unfortunately.  In her performance as a young woman who’s grieving over the death of her baby during childbirth, Kirby provides a gut-wrenching portrayal of someone who has experienced a profound loss.  While her work in the movie is tremendous all of the way through, it’s the intense opening half hour and the climactic courtroom scene near the end that turn her performance into a true stunner.  This is Kirby’s first nomination, but she’ll surely be returning in the near future.

Best Director: Lee Isaac Chung - “Minari”; Emerald Fennell - “Promising Young Woman”; David Fincher - “Mank”; Thomas Vinterberg - “Another Round”; Chloé Zhao - “Nomadland”

Chloé Zhao, director of "Nomadland"
Photo Credit: Imdb.com

Will Win: Chloé Zhao - “Nomadland” - Best Director is one category in which “Nomadland” has been an unstoppable force, and Zhao, who has received her first nomination, is predicted to be the big winner this year.  She has garnered numerous accolades from critics groups and has won the Critics Choice award, Golden Globe, BAFTA, and the Directors Guild of America award for her meditative drama about nomadic life in America.  With everything that Zhao has won so far on the awards circuit, she’s about to reach the Oscar apex.

Lee Isaac Chung, director of "Minari"
Photo Credit: Imdb.com

Should Win: Lee Isaac Chung - “Minari” - When watching Chung’s latest film, you can always sense the passion with which he unfolds his story, using semi-autobiographical aspects that help us get an idea about him and his life.  This is a genuine example of what happens when a director puts all of the love that he has into bringing his story to the screen.  Chung has scored some significant directing nominations from critics groups and the big award ceremonies before his Oscar nod, but he hasn’t had much luck with coming out on top.  Although Chloé Zhao’s string of wins doesn’t give Chung much of a chance at this point, I’m sure his trip on this year’s awards circuit will show more people what he can do and will bring him many more opportunities.

Best Picture: “The Father,” “Judas and the Black Messiah,” “Mank,” “Minari,” “Nomadland,” “Promising Young Woman,” “Sound of Metal,” “The Trial of the Chicago 7”

"Nomadland"
Photo Credit: RottenTomatoes.com

Will Win: “Nomadland” - For the last few years, predicting who would win Best Picture came with some uncertainty, even if there was one movie that could be seen as more of a frontrunner than others.  However, I think it’s safe to say that we have a full-fledged winner on our hands.  “Nomandland” was celebrated at the fall film festivals, named Best Picture by many critics groups, won the top honor at the Critics Choice Awards, Golden Globes, and BAFTAs, and won the Producers Guild of America award.  This has been quite the awards season for Chloé Zhao’s on-the-road drama, and that road will lead to “Nomadland” becoming the next Best Picture winner.

"Minari"
Photo Credit: Imdb.com

Should Win: “Minari” - Chung’s film started off strongly at the beginning of the year, winning two high honors at the Sundance Film Festival, where it premiered back in January.  And, although it has received many Best Picture nominations from critics groups over the last couple of months, not many of them have translated into wins.  What makes this movie so wonderful is that it’s a family story that is equal parts heartbreaking and joyful.  Brimming with life and hope, this is a narrative to which everyone will be able to relate on some level.  There’s magic in the warmth and beauty of this movie, and if you haven’t seen it yet, don’t wait any longer.

Be sure to tune into the 93rd Academy Awards on Sunday, April 25 on ABC at 8 p.m.