Predictions for the 91st Academy Awards

Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali, "Green Book"; Adam Driver, "BlacKkKlansman"; Sam Elliot, "A Star Is Born"; Richard E. Grant , "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"; Sam Rockwell - "Vice"

Mahershala Ali in "Green Book"
Photo Credit: Imdb.com

Will Win and Should Win: Mahershala Ali, "Green Book" - While Richard E. Grant has received the most attention of the five nominations with numerous nominations and wins amongst critics groups, Ali has had all of the luck with the major awards shows, winning the Critics’ Choice Movie Award, the Golden Globe, the Screen Actors Guild Award, and the BAFTA (British Academy of Film and Television Awards).  Portraying famed jazz pianist Don Shirley, Ali gave a wonderful performance of a man who travels throughout the South in the 1962 with his two bandmates and chauffeur on a concert tour.  While the films allows him to have some humorous moments along the way, it’s the dramatic side to his character that stands out, showing him trying to use his music to make an impact on a segregated society.  After winning in this category in 2017 for his role in "Moonlight," which was his first nomination, it looks like Ali will be making a return to the Dolby Theater stage.


Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, "Vice"; Marina de Tavira, "Roma"; Regina King, "If Beale Street Could Talk"; Emma Stone, "The Favourite"; Rachel Weisz, "The Favourite"

Regina King in "If Beale Street Could Talk"
Photo Credit: Imdb.com

Will Win: Regina King, "If Beale Street Could Talk" - At the start of awards season, King was the frontrunner in this category, winning numerous accolades from critics groups for her performance of a strong-willed mother who tries to help her daughter get her boyfriend out of jail, who has been imprisoned for a crime he didn’t commit.  When the major awards shows began airing, King went on to win the Critics’ Choice Award and the Golden Globe.  Although she wasn't nominated for the SAG Award or the BAFTA, she has had enough success on the awards circuit, thus far.  So, expect her first nomination to translate into a win.

Rachel Weisz in "The Favourite"
Photo Credit: Imdb.com

Should Win: Rachel Weisz, "The Favourite" - Weisz has been nominated for many awards for her work as the confidante to a cantankerous monarch, and she has had some luck in the process.  It’s a role in which Weisz revels in her character’s mischievous deeds, and it’s so much fun to see her go head-to-head with Emma Stone’s character.  Weisz does superb work in showing both her affection for the queen as her best friend and the jealousy that the she holds towards Stone’s character as the latter tries makes her way into the queen’s inner circle, drawing us into the arc of Weisz’s character as she worries about the possible breaking of her bond with her longtime friend.  Although Weisz managed to pull off a win at the BAFTA’s, which might have been made possible because King wasn’t nominated, it’s difficult to see Weisz receiving the Oscar instead of King, at this point.


Best Actor: Christian Bale, "Vice"; Bradley Cooper, "A Star Is Born"; Willem Dafoe, "At Eternity's Gate"; Rami Malek, "Bohemian Rhapsody"; Viggo Mortensen, "Green Book”

Rami Malek in "Bohemian Rhapsody"
Photo Credit: RottenTomatoes.com

Will Win: Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody” - Despite a troubled production and a mixed response from critics, the biopic of British rock band Queen has received a lot of unexpected awards attention, even scooping up a Best Motion Picture - Drama win at the Golden Globes and a Best Picture nomination from the Academy.  Despite the not-so-stellar critical reactions for the movie itself, there has been mammoth praise for Malek’s performance as Queen’s lead singer, Freddie Mercury.  Malek has received several nominations from critics groups and has won a Golden Globe for Best Actor - Motion Picture Drama, a SAG Award, and a BAFTA.  While Christian Bale poses a chance at being a possible winner, having won a Golden Globe for Best Actor- Motion Picture Musical or Comedy and the Critics’ Choice Award, expect Malek to be another first-time nominee from this year to walk away with the Oscar.

Bradley Cooper in "A Star Is Born"
Photo Credit: Imdb.com

Should Win: Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born” - This was the year where Cooper proved to be a multitalented individual, having acted in, directed, and co-written this musical drama, while also impressing audiences with a dynamic singing voice.  This is one of Cooper’s best performances to date, playing a country-music star who finds a new creative spark as he begins to collaborate and fall in love with a nightclub singer-songwriter (Lady Gaga).  What’s remarkable about Cooper’s performance is how he doesn’t let his character become a down-on-his-luck cliché, but instead makes his role into something that’s soulful, tender, and heartbreaking.  Cooper’s performance hasn’t had much luck in terms of wins from critics groups or the major awards shows, which is a shame because his work in this film presents next-level potential.  His first acting nomination came in 2013, and now in 2019, he’s already received his fourth.  With that much recognition in a short span of time, it’s easy to predict that he will have a lot more with which to impress us in the future.


Best Actress: Yalitza Aparicio, "Roma"; Glenn Close, "The Wife"; Olivia Colman, "The Favourite"; Lady Gaga, "A Star Is Born"; Melissa McCarthy, "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"

Glenn Close in "The Wife"
Photo Credit: Imdb.com

Will Win: Glenn Close, "The Wife" - Before this year, Close has received six Oscar nominations, but has never won.  She hasn't received much attention from critics groups for her role as the spouse of an acclaimed author, but her wins at the Critics’ Choice Awards (where she tied with Lady Gaga), Golden Globes, and SAG Awards are sure to result in Close having an Oscar to her name by this Sunday.

Olivia Colman in "The Favourite"
Photo Credit: Imdb.com

Should Win: Olivia Colman, "The Favourite" - While Colman isn’t predicted to make it to the stage at this year’s ceremony, she’s had some notable wins at other awards shows, winning the Golden Globe for Best Actress - Motion Picture Musical or Comedy and Best Actress at the BAFTAs, while also picking up some wins from critics groups along the way for her performance as an erratic British queen.  This has been quite a competitive year for this category, so Colman scoring a nomination is an award itself, but she has been a top competitor for quite some time.  It’s not only a performance with tremendous wit, but is also one that brings us into the tragedies that as plagued her character's life, and Colman provides stunning work in translating both sides of her role. She provides a combined effort of being unpredictable in certain scenes, and grounded in others, making this one of the most memorable performances of 2018.


Best Director: Alfonso Cuarón, "Roma"; Yorgos Lanthimos, "The Favourite"; Spike Lee, "BlacKkKlansman"; Adam McKay, "Vice"; Paweł Pawlikowski, "Cold War"

Alfonso Cuarón, director of "Roma"
Photo Credit: Imdb.com

Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón, "Roma" - Five years ago, Cuarón won in this category for his science-fiction thriller, "Gravity," and it looks like he will receive another win for his latest work, which tells the story of a live-in housekeeper who takes care of a family in early 1970s Mexico City.  Not only did he serve as the writer and director, but Cuarón was also the film’s cinematographer, which I'm sure has impressed Academy members.  As of now, he has won directing honors at the Critics’ Choice Awards, the Golden Globes, the BAFTAs, the Directors Guild of America, and from multiple critics groups, so it looks like his second directorial nomination will become his second win.

Yorgos Lanthimos, director of "The Favourite"
Photo Credit: Imdb.com

Should Win: Yorgos Lanthimos, "The Favourite" - Lanthimos excels in bringing us films that take a genre and imbue it with a weirdness that adds some freshness to those genres, with his latest subject being a historical period film.  Other than his Oscar nomination, Lanthimos was nominated at the Critics’ Choice Awards and the BAFTAs, and has also received nominations from several critics groups.  Throughout the film, Lanthimos is able to maintain his ability to keep us invested in trying to figure out what will happen next and delivers a historical film unlike any other.  This is all with the help of a surprising true story and outrageous and humorous images that invite us into a complex triangle of friendship that has many layers of deviousness.  Although Lanthimos likely won’t be winning this year, his talent for offering audiences unconventional filmgoing experiences will have him returning to the Oscars soon enough. 


Best Picture: “Black Panther,” ”BlacKkKlansman"; "Bohemian Rhapsody"; "The Favourite"; "Green Book"; "Roma"; "A Star Is Born;" "Vice"

"Roma"
Photo Credit: Imdb.com

Will Win: "Roma" - Last month, Best Picture looked like it would come down between “Roma” and "Green Book.”  In the case for "Green Book," it won the Producers Guild of America Award for Best Theatrical Motion Picture, which is a good indicator of what will win Best Picture, with 20 winners receiving the Oscars' top prize out of the 30 years of the PGA Awards.  And, its Golden Globe win for Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy doesn't hurt either.  However, two of the nine times that the PGA Awards and the Oscars didn't match up weren't too long ago, occurring in 2016 and 2017, so the PGAs haven't been quite as dependable as they usually are.  There's also the fact that "Green Book" didn't receive a nomination for Best Director.  In regard to "Roma," it's tied with "The Favourite" for having the most nominations of the year at 10, against five for "Green Book," and it won Best Picture at the Critics’ Choice Awards and BAFTAs.  And, although it wasn't nominated for Best Motion Picture - Drama at the Golden Globes, where there’s a rule stating that foreign-language films can’t be nominated in the Best Motion Picture - Drama and Musical or Comedy categories, it was able to pull off a win for Best Foreign Language Film.  What might hurt the Best Picture chances for "Roma" is that it's a Netflix movie, and it's difficult to tell how the Academy will feel about awarding Best Picture to a movie from a streaming service.  So, there’s a possibility that they just wanted to recognize "Roma" with a nomination, but not a win.  Despite this, the 10 nominations and many awards that "Roma" has received up to this point are difficult to ignore, so there's a chance that it could end up being this year's big winner.

"The Favourite"
Photo Credit: Imdb.com

Should Win: "The Favourite" - Although Lanthimos’ film has earned Best Picture nominations from the top awards shows and a few critics groups, in hasn’t had much fortune when it comes to winning, which is a shame because “The Favourite” is one of the most entertaining and original films of the year and is a terrific blend of acting, directing, writing, and technical qualities.  This is a historical period film with a hilarious and vicious twist, and Lanthimos never lets us forget that.  His film brings us many humorous sequences, but he never dilutes the emotional undertones of Olivia Colman’s character.  This movie has a lot going for it in several respects, making it deserving of its 10 nominations, and I’m hoping it’s able to pick up a couple of wins.  I’m still upset with myself for not getting around to seeing this movie a second time because there’s so much to appreciate.  So, if you haven’t seen it yet, fix that as soon as you can because this is a movie that impresses and astounds in equal measure.

Tune into the 91st Academy Awards on Sunday, February 24, at 8:00 p.m. on ABC.