Predictions for the 92nd Academy Awards

Best Supporting Actor: Tom Hanks, “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”; Anthony Hopkins, “The Two Popes”; Al Pacino, “The Irishman”; Joe Pesci, “The Irishman”; Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”

Brad Pitt in "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
Photo Credit: RottenTomatoes.com

Will Win: Brad Pit, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” - This year is shaping up to be the third time that a Tarantino film scores a win in this category, this time for Pitt’s work as the stunt double to the star of a ‘60s television western, played by Leonardo DiCaprio.  Pitt has had a considerable amount of luck so far, winning Best Supporting Actor from multiple critics’ groups, the Critics’ Choice Awards, the Golden Globes, the Screen Actors Guild Awards, and the BAFTAs (British Academy of Film and Television Arts), so it looks like he will be ending Oscar night with a win.  He might have played a stunt man in this film, but he will be front and center at the Dolby Theater.

Joe Pesci in "The Irishman"
Photo Credit: Imdb.com

Should Win: Joe Pesci, “The Irishman” - Pesci won in this category back in 1991 for his performance in Martin Scorsese’s “Goodfellas.”  In Scorsese’s latest film, Pesci provides an antitheses to his character in “Goodfellas,” playing a calm, but calculated crime boss who introduces truck driver Frank Sheeran (Robert De Niro) to the mafia lifestyle and molding him into a mobster.  Pesci has picked up several wins from critics’ groups, but he hasn’t had any wins at the major awards ceremonies.  Scorsese brought the out the best of Pesci’s talents in “Raging Bull” and “Goodfellas,” and he does it once again for this sprawling gangster epic.  Pesci was convinced to come out of retirement for this role, and given how astonishing he is, I hope he doesn’t decide to take another break anytime soon.

Best Supporting Actress: Kathy Bates, “Richard Jewell”; Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”; Scarlett Johansson, “Jojo Rabbit”; Florence Pugh, “Little Women”; Margot Robbie, “Bombshell”

Laura Dern in "Marriage Story"
Photo Credit: Imdb.com

Will Win and Should Win: Laura Dern, “Marriage Story” - As the tireless divorce lawyer of Scarlett Johansson’s character, Nicole, Dern provides her role with a perfect balance of affability, charisma, and courtroom-battle readiness, and she looks like she had a lot of fun with the role.  She’s a character who understands Nicole’s situation, even if she might not grasp that Nicole still exhibits a sense of caring for her soon-to-be ex-husband, Charlie (Adam Driver).  Some of the best scenes of the film are those involving Dern, especially one later in the movie where she discusses the double standards of how mothers and fathers are perceived.  With multiple wins from critics’ groups and at the Critics’ Choice Awards, Golden Globes, the Screen Actors Guild Awards, and the BAFTAs, Dern winning an Oscar is a sure thing.

Best Actor: Antonio Banderas, “Pain and Glory”; Leonardo DiCaprio, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”; Adam Driver, “Marriage Story”; Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”; Jonathan Pryce, “The Two Popes”

Joaquin Phoenix in "Joker"
Photo Credit: RottenTomatoes.com

Will Win and Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker” - There wasn’t a performance in 2019 that rattled me quite as much as Phoenix’s masterful portrayal of the iconic comic-book villain in director Todd Philips’ unsettling, psychoanalytic origin story.  While Phoenix didn’t begin the awards season quite as strongly with the critics’ groups, he has picked up a lot of momentum with the awards shows, winning Best Actor at the Critics’ Choice Awards, the Golden Globes, the Screen Actors Guild Awards, and the BAFTAs.  This is a performance that will pin your eyes to the screen, and what Phoenix accomplishes with the character isn't anything short of disturbing and unforgettable.

Best Actress: Cynthia Erivo, “Harriet”; Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story”; Saoirse Ronan, “Little Women”; Charlize Theron, “Bombshell”; Renée Zellweger, “Judy”

Renée Zellweger in "Judy"
Photo Credit: Imdb.com

Will Win and Should Win: Renée Zellweger, “Judy” - Zellweger’s performance as iconic actress Judy Garland was a case of making you feel like you’re actually watching the person whom the actress is portraying.  Between Zellweger’s appearance, physical movements, vocal cadences, and singing voice, especially a heartstring-tugging rendition of “Over the Rainbow” at the film’s end, Zellweger delivers a tribute that Garland deserves.  While Zellweger hasn’t been named Best Actress among many critics’ groups, she’s been dominating the awards shows, winning Best Actress at the Critics Choice Awards, Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild Awards, and the BAFTAs.  Zellweger hasn’t been nominated since winning Best Supporting Actress in 2004 for “Cold Mountain,” so this could very well have her returning to the stage on Oscar night.

Best Director: Bong Joon-ho, “Parasite”; Sam Mendes, “1917”; Todd Philips, “Joker”; Martin Scorsese, “The Irishman”; Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”

Sam Mendes, director of "1917"
Photo Credit: Imdb.com

Will Win: Sam Mendes, “1917” - While Mendes might not be my personal pick for Best Director, there isn’t any denying the visceral impact that his World War I film leaves on the audience.  Through its brutal imagery, emotional performances, and appearance of being one long take, Mendes does whatever he can to immerse his audience in the horrors of war.  Although he hasn’t gained much attention from critics’ groups, Mendes won Best Director at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs, while tying with Bong at the Critics’ Choice Awards.  However, what seems to have sealed the deal for Mendes is his win for Outstanding Director-Feature Film from the Directors Guild of America Awards.  Mendes won in this category in 2000 for “American Beauty,” and it looks like the odds are in his favor for him winning his second Oscar for directing.

Bong Joon-ho, director of "Parasite"
Photo Credit: Imdb.com

Should Win: Bong Joon-ho, “Parasite” - While all of the nominees in this category provided wonderful work this past year, the filmmaking that Bong accomplishes with his dark-comedy thriller isn’t anything short of remarkable.  With a blisteringly original story involving a lower-class family slowly integrating themselves into an upper-class household, he jumps between genres without flaw, leaving us breathless in the movie’s unpredictability, offering a moviegoing experience unlike any other in 2019.  He perfects every aspect of the film to bring its narrative to life, and there isn’t any doubt that he will have you laugh, gasp, and keep your eyes wide open for the entirety of its runtime.  Bong has picked up many wins from critics’ groups and tied with Mendes at the Critics’ Choice Awards, and although it doesn’t look like he will win, I’m sure that no one will forget his direction for this cunning beast of a movie.

Best Picture: “1917”; “Ford v Ferrari”; “The Irishman”; “Jojo Rabbit”; “Joker”; “Little Women”; “Marriage Story”; “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”; “Parasite”

Dean-Charles Chapman (left) and George MacKay in "1917"
Photo Credit: Imdb.com

Will Win: “1917” - This is a tough Best Picture race to predict because “1917,” “The Irishman,” “Joker,” “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” and “Parasite” all have a potential shot at receiving the night’s top honor.  However, the movie that has the edge right now is “1917.”  Not only did it win Best Motion Picture - Drama at the Golden Globes and Best Picture at the BAFTAs, but it also won the Producers Guild of America Award for Best Theatrical Motion Picture, which is a pretty good indication of who will win Best Picture; the two awards matched up with the Academy’s Best Picture winner for 14 out of the last 20 years.  The film is both a technical and storytelling achievement, and with all of its previous wins, it has the edge to come out on top on Oscar night.

From left: Choi Woo-shik, Song Kang-ho, Jang Hye-jin,
and Park So-dam in "Parasite"
Photo Credit: Imdb.com

Should Win: “Parasite” - Bong Joon-ho’s film was, in my opinion, the best movie of the year, and seeing it win the Academy’s highest honor would be great to see.  However, what’s likely to happen is that the Academy will award Bong’s movie with Best International Feature Film, and then give Best Picture to another nominee, most likely “1917.”  As much as I like the other nominees, “Parasite” is such an incendiary and inventive concept that’s filled with surprises, terrific writing, timely themes, and performances that are both funny and heartbreaking.  This feels like a one-of-a-kind movie where pretty much every scene has something that catches you by surprise, but that doesn’t mean watching it a second time lessens the impact.  If anything, you’ll want to relive this movie in order to take in the thrills once again, and also to unpack what you might have missed the first time around.  Considering the amount of superb nominees that we have in the Best Picture race this year, it isn’t any small feat that “Parasite” stands above them.

Be sure to catch the 92nd Academy Awards on ABC on Sunday, February 9, at 8:00 p.m.